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Chelyabinsk vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
Preview
15:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
7/25/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Central Stadium
Big match
40%
Chelyabinsk
model favours
40%27%33%

Top-of-the-table clash — Chelyabinsk 3 vs Nizhny Novgorod 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chelyabinsk40%
×Draw27%
Nizhny Novgorod33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.30
Nizhny Novgorod
1.14

Chelyabinsk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.78
Nizhny Novgorod
1.17

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.11
Nizhny Novgorod
0.83

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
67%
Chelyabinsk or Nizhny Novgorod
73%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
60%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
18%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
73%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
37%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
14%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
68%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
32%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
55%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.30

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.17 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
40%
level
27%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
33%

Chelyabinsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Chelyabinsk
WDDL
Novgorod
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chelyabinsk face Nizhny Novgorod (First League)

First League returns with Chelyabinsk hosting Nizhny Novgorod. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chelyabinsk host Nizhny Novgorod at Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.