Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cheltenham vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
19:45
Rochdale
Rochdale
12/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Whaddon Road
45%
Cheltenham
model favours
45%27%28%

Rochdale have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Cheltenham45%
×Draw27%
Rochdale28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.43
Rochdale
1.06

Cheltenham creates 35% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.49
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.17
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
72%
Cheltenham or Rochdale
73%
Draw or Rochdale
55%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
22%
Rochdale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
76%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
42%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
17%
Rochdale 1+ goals
65%
Rochdale 2+ goals
29%
Rochdale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
62%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cheltenham scores more
45%
level
27%
Rochdale scores more
28%

Cheltenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Cheltenham
Balanced
Rochdale
Balanced
48%PossessionBiggest gap52%
66%Pass accuracy70%
10.6Shots10.5
1.06xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CheltenhamRochdale

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Cheltenham
1
Draws
3
Rochdale
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
0–21–20–01–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
WLLL
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cheltenham host Rochdale

December 1, 2026: Cheltenham take on Rochdale in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cheltenham host Rochdale at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.