Cheltenham 2–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Morecambe

A. May 35'

C. Thomas 32' (pen)

A. Leitch-Smith 84'

2/1/2020

League Two · Round 31Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cheltenham48%

×Draw25%

Morecambe28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.17

Cheltenham

1.61

Morecambe

1.17

Cheltenham creates 38% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 93 away

1.49

creates per match

1.17

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.49

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.17

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

72%

Cheltenham or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

52%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

25%

Morecambe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

80%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

48%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

22%

Morecambe 1+ goals

69%

Morecambe 2+ goals

33%

Morecambe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

63%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cheltenham scores more

48%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

28%

Cheltenham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Doyle-Hayes

Cheltenham · M

7.9

Match Events

32'

C. ThomasPenalty

35'

A. May↳ L. Varney

44'

51'

55'

64'

64'

A. Leitch-Smith← T. Diagouraga

66'

T. Nichols← L. Varney

67'

R. Ince← M. Sheaf

71'

Alex Kenyon

83'

H. Bradbury← Carlos Gomes

84'

A. Leitch-Smith↳ A. Phillips

87'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamMorecambe

Overview

61%Possession39%

7Total Shots17

3Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots17

3On Target5

3Off Target8

1Blocked4

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

457Total Passes279

322Accurate Passes154

70%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0