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Cheltenham vs Bolton — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
R. Delaney 90+1'
12/15/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cheltenham38%
×Draw26%
Bolton36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.33
Bolton
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 23 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.49
Bolton
1.39

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.17
Bolton
1.17

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
64%
Cheltenham or Bolton
74%
Draw or Bolton
62%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
17%
Bolton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
74%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
38%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
15%
Bolton 1+ goals
72%
Bolton 2+ goals
37%
Bolton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
52%
Bolton (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + Bolton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bolton attack 1.39 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more
38%
level
26%
Bolton scores more
36%

Cheltenham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
RicardoBoltonBolton · D
8.3

Match Events

66'
A. Williams← G. Lloyd
67'
J. Mascoll← R. Greenidge
69'
T. Sang← F. Azaz
80'
Thomas Sang
84'
R. Reid← E. Chapman
90'
Charlie Raglan
90+1'
R. Delaney↳ Ricardo

Possession

56%Cheltenham

Shots

11Cheltenham

Pass accuracy

55%Cheltenham

Statistics

CheltenhamBolton
Overview
56%Possession44%
11Total Shots12
7Corners3
18Fouls6
Shots
11Total Shots12
4On Target5
3Off Target5
4Blocked2
8Inside Box9
3Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
391Total Passes309
270Accurate Passes176
69%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

League Two: Cheltenham 0–1 Bolton

Bolton beat Cheltenham 1-0 in League Two on December 15, 2020.

Goals: R. Delaney (90+1').

Cheltenham controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.