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Chelsea W vs Manchester City W — FA WSL 2018

Chelsea W
Chelsea W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Manchester City W
Manchester City W
2/16/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 14Kingsmeadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Chelsea W47%
×Draw22%
Manchester City W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea W
1.87
Manchester City W
1.48

Chelsea W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

creates per match

Chelsea W
2.81
Manchester City W
2.31

allows per match

Chelsea W
0.64
Manchester City W
0.93

finishing

Chelsea W+0.00on par
Manchester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea W ↓

Manchester City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chelsea W or draw
69%
Chelsea W or Manchester City W
78%
Draw or Manchester City W
53%

Winning margin

Chelsea W wins by 2+
26%
Manchester City W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chelsea W 1+ goals
85%
Chelsea W 2+ goals
56%
Chelsea W 3+ goals
29%
Manchester City W 1+ goals
77%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
43%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chelsea W (draw refunded)
60%
Manchester City W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea W at home — creates 2.81, concedes 0.64 · 84 matches

Manchester City W away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea W attack 2.81 + Manchester City W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.87

Manchester City W attack 2.31 + Chelsea W defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chelsea W scores more
47%
level
22%
Manchester City W scores more
31%

Chelsea W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Chelsea W 0–1 Manchester City W

Manchester City W beat Chelsea W 1-0 in FA WSL on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Kingsmeadow in Kingston upon Thames, Surrey.