Chelsea 2–2 Wolves: Result & Stats | Premier League

Chelsea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

R. Lukaku 58', 56' (pen)

C. Coady 90+7'

Trincão 79'

5/7/2022

Premier League · Round 36Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Chelsea53%

×Draw23%

Wolves23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.08

Chelsea

1.77

Wolves

1.08

Chelsea creates 64% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.87

creates per match

0.81

1.36

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Chelsea

1.87

Wolves

0.81

allows per match

Chelsea

1.36

Wolves

1.66

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.31scores less

Wolves-0.27scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

77%

Chelsea or Wolves

77%

Draw or Wolves

47%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

30%

Wolves wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

53%

Chelsea 3+ goals

26%

Wolves 1+ goals

66%

Wolves 2+ goals

29%

Wolves 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

70%

Wolves (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.66 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.87 + Wolves defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.77

Wolves attack 0.81 + Chelsea defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chelsea scores more

53%

level

23%

Wolves scores more

23%

Chelsea at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Lukaku

Chelsea · F

8.7

Match Events

27'

César Azpilicueta

36'

Romain Saïss

39'

Antonio RüdigerGoal cancelled

45+2'

Pedro Neto

46'

Saúl← Marcos Alonso

51'

João Moutinho

53'

Romelu LukakuPenalty awarded

56'

R. LukakuPenalty

58'

R. Lukaku↳ C. Pulisic

70'

Hwang Hee-Chan← Pedro Neto

70'

77'

79'

87'

90+1'

K. Havertz← R. Lukaku

90+7'

C. Coady↳ Chiquinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaWolves

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots14

9Corners3

7Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots14

6On Target4

8Off Target9

5Blocked1

13Inside Box10

6Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

493Total Passes332

423Accurate Passes260

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1