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Chelsea vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wolves
Wolves
1/27/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Chelsea55%
×Draw23%
Wolves22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.79
Wolves
1.05

Chelsea creates 70% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.86
Wolves
0.82

allows per match

Chelsea
1.28
Wolves
1.72

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less
Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
78%
Chelsea or Wolves
77%
Draw or Wolves
45%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
31%
Wolves wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
83%
Chelsea 2+ goals
53%
Chelsea 3+ goals
26%
Wolves 1+ goals
65%
Wolves 2+ goals
28%
Wolves 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
71%
Wolves (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Wolves attack 0.82 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chelsea scores more
55%
level
23%
Wolves scores more
22%

Chelsea at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Rui PatrícioWolvesWolves · G
8.3

Match Events

46'
K. Hoever← R. Aït Nouri
51'
Pedro Neto
62'
Ben Chilwell
72'
Willian José← Daniel Podence
76'
C. Pulisic← B. Chilwell
77'
T. Abraham← O. Giroud
83'
M. Mount← H. Ziyech
90'
João Moutinho← Adama Traoré

Possession

78%Chelsea

Shots

14Chelsea

Pass accuracy

56%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaWolves
Overview
78%Possession22%
14Total Shots4
12Corners1
14Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots4
5On Target0
5Off Target4
4Blocked0
9Inside Box2
5Outside Box2
Passing
78%Possession22%
898Total Passes242
832Accurate Passes174
93%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Wolves

Chelsea and Wolves drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 27, 2021.

Chelsea controlled possession (78%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.