Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tottenham

R. James 77'

K. Koulibaly 19'

H. Kane 90+6'

P. Højbjerg 68'

8/14/2022

Premier League · Round 2Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Chelsea50%

×Draw24%

Tottenham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.22

Chelsea

1.75

Tottenham

1.22

Chelsea creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.88

creates per match

1.12

1.32

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Chelsea

1.88

Tottenham

1.12

allows per match

Chelsea

1.32

Tottenham

1.62

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.35scores less

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

73%

Chelsea or Tottenham

76%

Draw or Tottenham

50%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

27%

Tottenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

52%

Chelsea 3+ goals

25%

Tottenham 1+ goals

70%

Tottenham 2+ goals

34%

Tottenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

65%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.88 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Chelsea defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chelsea scores more

50%

level

24%

Tottenham scores more

27%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

P. Højbjerg

Tottenham · M

8.2

Match Events

19'

K. Koulibaly↳ Marc Cucurella

41'

Reece James

57'

Richarlison← R. Sessegnon

62'

Edouard Mendy

68'

P. Højbjerg↳ B. Davies

73'

César Azpilicueta← Jorginho

77'

R. James↳ R. Sterling

79'

Y. Bissouma← R. Bentancur

79'

I. Perišić← Son Heung-Min

82'

Lucas Moura← Emerson

84'

C. Gallagher← N. Kanté

85'

C. Pulišić← R. Sterling

86'

Kai Havertz

90+5'

Cristian RomeroCard reviewed

90'

A. Broja← K. Havertz

90+6'

H. Kane↳ I. Perišić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaTottenham

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots10

8Corners5

9Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots10

3On Target5

6Off Target2

7Blocked3

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

597Total Passes340

512Accurate Passes269

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1