Chelsea 2–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tottenham

V. Moses 51'

Pedro 45'

C. Eriksen 11'

11/26/2016

Premier League · Round 13Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Chelsea50%

×Draw24%

Tottenham26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.21

Chelsea

1.75

Tottenham

1.21

Chelsea creates 45% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 37 away

1.89

creates per match

1.17

1.25

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Chelsea

1.89

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Chelsea

1.25

Tottenham

1.62

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.45scores less

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

74%

Chelsea or Tottenham

76%

Draw or Tottenham

50%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

27%

Tottenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

52%

Chelsea 3+ goals

25%

Tottenham 1+ goals

70%

Tottenham 2+ goals

34%

Tottenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

65%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.25 · 39 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.89 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chelsea scores more

50%

level

24%

Tottenham scores more

26%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Azpilicueta

Chelsea · D

7.5

Match Events

11'

C. Eriksen↳ D. Alli

19'

David Luiz

26'

Mousa Dembélé

45'

Pedro↳ N. Matić

51'

V. Moses↳ Diego Costa

65'

H. Winks← Heung-Min Son

73'

G. N'Koudou← D. Alli

77'

Willian← E. Hazard

81'

B. Ivanović← V. Moses

83'

Oscar← Pedro

83'

V. Janssen← M. Dembélé

85'

Willian

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaTottenham

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots12

3Corners8

13Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots12

5On Target6

3Off Target5

1Blocked1

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

386Total Passes459

296Accurate Passes371

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3