Chelsea 1–0 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Newcastle

K. Havertz 89'

3/13/2022

Premier League · Round 29Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Chelsea44%

×Draw25%

Newcastle31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.27

Chelsea

1.57

Newcastle

1.27

Chelsea creates 24% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 25 away

1.87

creates per match

1.23

1.30

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Chelsea

1.87

Newcastle

1.23

allows per match

Chelsea

1.30

Newcastle

1.27

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.38scores less

Newcastle-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

69%

Chelsea or Newcastle

75%

Draw or Newcastle

56%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

22%

Newcastle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

79%

Chelsea 2+ goals

46%

Chelsea 3+ goals

21%

Newcastle 1+ goals

72%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

59%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.30 · 35 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.87 + Newcastle defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Newcastle attack 1.23 + Chelsea defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chelsea scores more

44%

level

25%

Newcastle scores more

31%

Chelsea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

T. Chalobah

Chelsea · D

7.5

Match Events

39'

Kai Havertz

40'

Kai HavertzCard reviewed

50'

58'

63'

63'

69'

A. Saint-Maximin← M. Almirón

78'

80'

87'

89'

90+1'

90+2'

90+1'

D. Gayle← Javi Manquillo

90+1'

R. Fraser← J. Murphy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaNewcastle

Overview

73%Possession27%

8Total Shots7

7Corners2

17Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target2

4Off Target5

1Blocked0

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

570Total Passes209

491Accurate Passes130

86%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides6

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Newcastle

Chelsea beat Newcastle 1-0 in Premier League on March 13, 2022.

Goals: K. Havertz (89').

Chelsea controlled possession (73%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Newcastle