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Chelsea vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Newcastle
Newcastle
Willian 57'
Pedro 9'
C. Clark 40'
1/12/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Chelsea44%
×Draw25%
Newcastle31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.54
Newcastle
1.25

Chelsea creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 28 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.89
Newcastle
1.24

allows per match

Chelsea
1.25
Newcastle
1.20

finishing

Chelsea-0.45scores less
Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Newcastle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
69%
Chelsea or Newcastle
75%
Draw or Newcastle
56%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
22%
Newcastle wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
79%
Chelsea 2+ goals
45%
Chelsea 3+ goals
20%
Newcastle 1+ goals
71%
Newcastle 2+ goals
36%
Newcastle 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
59%
Newcastle (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.25 · 39 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.89 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Newcastle attack 1.24 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chelsea scores more
44%
level
25%
Newcastle scores more
31%

Chelsea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
David LuizChelseaChelsea · D
8.7

Match Events

9'
Pedro↳ David Luiz
24'
Matt Ritchie
40'
C. Clark↳ M. Ritchie
57'
Willian↳ E. Hazard
63'
Jorginho
63'
R. Barkley← M. Kovačić
81'
C. Hudson-Odoi← Pedro
82'
Jacob Murphy← Ayoze Pérez
82'
Javi Manquillo← D. Yedlin
87'
O. Giroud← E. Hazard

Possession

65%Chelsea

Shots

10Chelsea

Pass accuracy

53%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaNewcastle
Overview
65%Possession35%
10Total Shots9
8Corners5
6Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots9
6On Target2
2Off Target6
2Blocked1
8Inside Box7
2Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
698Total Passes351
596Accurate Passes261
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
5Offsides1

Premier League: Chelsea 2–1 Newcastle

Chelsea beat Newcastle 2-1 in Premier League on January 12, 2019.

Goals: Pedro (9'), C. Clark (40'), Willian (57').

Chelsea controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.