Chelsea 5–1 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Newcastle

B. Traore 83'

Pedro 59', 9'

Willian 17'

Diego Costa 5'

A. Townsend 90'

2/13/2016

Premier League · Round 26Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Chelsea44%

×Draw25%

Newcastle31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

Chelsea

1.54

Newcastle

1.25

Chelsea creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 28 away

1.89

creates per match

1.24

1.25

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Chelsea

1.89

Newcastle

1.24

allows per match

Chelsea

1.25

Newcastle

1.20

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.45scores less

Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

69%

Chelsea or Newcastle

75%

Draw or Newcastle

56%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

22%

Newcastle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

79%

Chelsea 2+ goals

45%

Chelsea 3+ goals

20%

Newcastle 1+ goals

71%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

59%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.25 · 39 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.89 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Newcastle attack 1.24 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chelsea scores more

44%

level

25%

Newcastle scores more

31%

Chelsea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Willian

Chelsea · M

8.9

Match Events

5'

9'

17'

19'

38'

A. Baba← J. Terry

46'

J. Colback← G. Wijnaldum

59'

Pedro↳ Fàbregas

60'

B. Traore← Diego Costa

61'

Jonjo Shelvey

67'

J. Lascelles← C. Tioté

70'

S. Doumbia← A. Mitrović

80'

R. Loftus-Cheek← Willian

83'

B. Traore↳ Azpilicueta

90'

A. Townsend↳ J. Colback

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaNewcastle

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots10

8Corners5

11Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots10

7On Target3

4Off Target2

3Blocked5

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

555Total Passes452

465Accurate Passes367

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Newcastle

Chelsea beat Newcastle 5-1 in Premier League on February 13, 2016.

Goals: Diego Costa (5'), Pedro (9', 59'), Willian (17'), B. Traore (83'), A. Townsend (90').

Chelsea controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Newcastle