Chelsea 2–0 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Newcastle

Diego Costa 59'

Oscar 43'

1/10/2015

Premier League · Round 21Stamford Bridge (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Chelsea45%

×Draw25%

Newcastle30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.25

Chelsea

1.59

Newcastle

1.25

Chelsea creates 27% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

1.92

creates per match

1.23

1.27

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Chelsea

1.92

Newcastle

1.23

allows per match

Chelsea

1.27

Newcastle

1.27

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.37scores less

Newcastle-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

70%

Chelsea or Newcastle

75%

Draw or Newcastle

55%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

23%

Newcastle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

80%

Chelsea 2+ goals

47%

Chelsea 3+ goals

21%

Newcastle 1+ goals

71%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

60%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.92 + Newcastle defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Newcastle attack 1.23 + Chelsea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chelsea scores more

45%

level

25%

Newcastle scores more

30%

Chelsea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Filipe Luis← Azpilicueta

43'

45'

58'

59'

63'

Sammy Ameobi← Y. Gouffran

65'

Paul Dummett

71'

Nemanja Matić

76'

Oscar

79'

Ramires← Oscar

84'

L. Rémy← Diego Costa

84'

E. Rivière← M. Sissoko

Possession

Statistics

ChelseaNewcastle

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Corners4

15Fouls10

Shots

4On Target5

4Off Target1

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

6Offsides0