Chelsea 1–1 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester United

Jorginho 69' (pen)

J. Sancho 50'

11/28/2021

Premier League · Round 13Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Chelsea46%

×Draw24%

Manchester United30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.32

Chelsea

1.69

Manchester United

1.32

Chelsea creates 28% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 27 away

1.86

creates per match

1.36

1.28

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Manchester United

1.36

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Manchester United

1.52

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Chelsea-0.42scores less

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

70%

Chelsea or Manchester United

76%

Draw or Manchester United

54%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

24%

Manchester United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

82%

Chelsea 2+ goals

50%

Chelsea 3+ goals

24%

Manchester United 1+ goals

73%

Manchester United 2+ goals

38%

Manchester United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

61%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Manchester United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Manchester United attack 1.36 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chelsea scores more

46%

level

24%

Manchester United scores more

30%

Chelsea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Thiago Silva

Chelsea · D

7.3

Match Events

45'

49'

50'

53'

64'

Cristiano Ronaldo← J. Sancho

69'

JorginhoPenalty

77'

Bruno Fernandes

77'

J. Lingard← M. Rashford

78'

C. Pulisic← C. Hudson-Odoi

78'

M. Mount← Marcos Alonso

82'

R. Lukaku← T. Werner

89'

D. van de Beek← Bruno Fernandes

90+5'

Jorginho

90+6'

Eric Bailly

90+2'

Cristiano Ronaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaManchester

Overview

66%Possession34%

24Total Shots3

15Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

24Total Shots3

6On Target2

10Off Target1

8Blocked0

17Inside Box1

7Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

586Total Passes318

505Accurate Passes236

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Manchester United

Chelsea and Manchester United drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 28, 2021.

Goals: J. Sancho (50'), Jorginho (69' pen).

Chelsea controlled possession (66%) and registered 24 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Manchester United — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Manchester United