Chelsea 1–0 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester United

Álvaro Morata 55'

11/5/2017

Premier League · Round 11Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Chelsea45%

×Draw24%

Manchester United31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.36

Chelsea

1.68

Manchester United

1.36

Chelsea creates 24% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 28 away

1.86

creates per match

1.44

1.28

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Manchester United

1.44

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Manchester United

1.50

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less

Manchester United+0.02on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

69%

Chelsea or Manchester United

76%

Draw or Manchester United

55%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

23%

Manchester United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

81%

Chelsea 2+ goals

50%

Chelsea 3+ goals

24%

Manchester United 1+ goals

74%

Manchester United 2+ goals

39%

Manchester United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

59%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Manchester United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Manchester United attack 1.44 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chelsea scores more

45%

level

24%

Manchester United scores more

31%

Chelsea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Azpilicueta

Chelsea · D

8.1

Match Events

20'

Tiemoué Bakayoko

49'

Phil Jones

51'

Ander Herrera

55'

Álvaro Morata↳ Azpilicueta

62'

A. Martial← H. Mkhitaryan

62'

M. Fellaini← P. Jones

66'

A. Rüdiger← D. Zappacosta

71'

Marouane Fellaini

78'

J. Lingard← A. Young

79'

D. Drinkwater← Fàbregas

87'

Willian← E. Hazard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaManchester

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots10

4Corners7

16Fouls20

Shots

18Total Shots10

8On Target2

6Off Target3

4Blocked5

12Inside Box3

6Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

471Total Passes396

370Accurate Passes301

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

16Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3