Chelsea 2–1 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Manchester City

E. Hazard 35', 10'

S. Agüero 26'

4/5/2017

Premier League · Round 31Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Chelsea38%

×Draw24%

Manchester City38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.54

Chelsea

1.55

Manchester City

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 36 away

1.89

creates per match

1.84

1.25

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Chelsea

1.89

Manchester City

1.84

allows per match

Chelsea

1.25

Manchester City

1.21

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.45scores less

Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

62%

Chelsea or Manchester City

76%

Draw or Manchester City

62%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

19%

Manchester City wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

79%

Chelsea 2+ goals

46%

Chelsea 3+ goals

20%

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

45%

Manchester City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

50%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.25 · 39 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.21 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.89 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.55

Manchester City attack 1.84 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chelsea scores more

38%

level

24%

Manchester City scores more

38%

Chelsea at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Chelsea · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

E. Hazard↳ Azpilicueta

26'

35'

46'

52'

77'

79'

R. Sterling← K. De Bruyne

81'

Willian← Fàbregas

83'

Vincent Kompany

85'

Nolito← L. Sané

90'

N'Golo Kanté

90'

R. Loftus-Cheek← E. Hazard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaManchester

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots17

2Corners9

10Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots17

4On Target7

3Off Target6

3Blocked4

6Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

399Total Passes616

307Accurate Passes541

77%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0