Chelsea 2–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hull City

Diego Costa 68'

E. Hazard 7'

12/13/2014

Premier League · Round 16Stamford Bridge (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Chelsea63%

×Draw22%

Hull City15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.76

Chelsea

1.83

Hull City

0.76

Chelsea creates 141% more chances

Season form · 201 home / 38 away

1.78

creates per match

0.53

0.98

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Chelsea

1.78

Hull City

0.53

allows per match

Chelsea

0.98

Hull City

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

85%

Chelsea or Hull City

78%

Draw or Hull City

37%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

37%

Hull City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

54%

Chelsea 3+ goals

28%

Hull City 1+ goals

53%

Hull City 2+ goals

18%

Hull City 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

81%

Hull City (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 201 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + Hull City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hull City attack 0.53 + Chelsea defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Chelsea scores more

63%

level

22%

Hull City scores more

15%

Chelsea at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

E. Hazard↳ Oscar

10'

A. Bruce← M. Dawson

64'

R. Brady← S. Aluko

68'

Diego Costa↳ E. Hazard

74'

G. Ramírez← N. Jelavić

78'

D. Drogba← Oscar

80'

A. Schürrle← Willian

82'

Ramires← J. Obi Mikel

Chelsea

Hull

1

McGregor

21

▼

6

5

26

8

24

▼

27

7

14

18

▼

1

26

24

3

2

12

▼

Mikel

22

▼

Willian

21

Matić

10

⚽A

Hazard

8

A

▼

Oscar

19

⚽

Costa

78'▲D. Drogba←▼Oscar

80'▲A. Schürrle←▼Willian

82'▲Ramires←▼J. Obi Mikel

Chelsea substitutes

11Drogba14Schürrle7Ramires5Zouma18Rémy23Schwarzer28Azpilicueta

10'▲A. Bruce←▼M. Dawson

64'▲R. Brady←▼S. Aluko

74'▲G. Ramírez←▼N. Jelavić

Hull City substitutes

4Bruce11Brady25Ramírez2Rosenior9Hernández16Jakupovic29Quinn