Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chelsea vs Fulham — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fulham
Fulham
K. Havertz 49', 10'
5/1/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Chelsea49%
×Draw24%
Fulham27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.75
Fulham
1.23

Chelsea creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.88
Fulham
1.13

allows per match

Chelsea
1.32
Fulham
1.62

finishing

Chelsea-0.35scores less
Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Fulham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
73%
Chelsea or Fulham
76%
Draw or Fulham
51%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
27%
Fulham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
83%
Chelsea 2+ goals
52%
Chelsea 3+ goals
25%
Fulham 1+ goals
71%
Fulham 2+ goals
35%
Fulham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
65%
Fulham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.88 + Fulham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fulham attack 1.13 + Chelsea defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chelsea scores more
49%
level
24%
Fulham scores more
27%

Chelsea at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
K. HavertzChelseaChelsea · F
8.2

Match Events

10'
K. Havertz↳ M. Mount
41'
Kurt Zouma
49'
Kai HavertzGoal cancelled
49'
K. Havertz↳ T. Werner
66'
N. Kanté← H. Ziyech
76'
T. Abraham← M. Mount
78'
J. Onomah← Ivan Cavaleiro
78'
F. Carvalho← M. Lemina
81'
Marcos Alonso← B. Chilwell
81'
A. Mitrović← J. Maja
90'
Ola Aina

Possession

48%Chelsea

Shots

9Chelsea

Pass accuracy

50%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaFulham
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots10
1Corners8
15Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots10
5On Target3
1Off Target4
3Blocked3
7Inside Box5
2Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
511Total Passes521
435Accurate Passes446
85%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
7Offsides1

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Fulham

Chelsea beat Fulham 2-0 in Premier League on May 1, 2021.

Goals: K. Havertz (10', 49').

Fulham controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.