Chelsea 2–2 Everton: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Everton

K. Havertz 76' (pen)

João Félix 52'

E. Simms 89'

A. Doucouré 69'

3/18/2023

Premier League · Round 28Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Chelsea51%

×Draw23%

Everton26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.21

Chelsea

1.79

Everton

1.21

Chelsea creates 48% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 28 away

1.87

creates per match

1.14

1.28

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Chelsea

1.87

Everton

1.14

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Everton

1.72

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.41scores less

Everton-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

74%

Chelsea or Everton

77%

Draw or Everton

49%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

28%

Everton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

53%

Chelsea 3+ goals

26%

Everton 1+ goals

70%

Everton 2+ goals

34%

Everton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

66%

Everton (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.28 · 37 matches

Everton away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.72 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.87 + Everton defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Everton attack 1.14 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chelsea scores more

51%

level

23%

Everton scores more

26%

Chelsea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Doucouré

Everton · M

8.0

Match Events

29'

45+1'

52'

57'

62'

C. Gallagher← C. Pulišić

69'

A. Doucouré↳ J. Tarkowski

74'

Reece James

76'

K. HavertzPenalty

79'

E. Simms← I. Gueye

81'

R. Loftus-Cheek← M. Kovačić

84'

V. Mykolenko← S. Coleman

86'

C. Chukwuemeka← João Félix

87'

T. Chalobah← W. Fofana

89'

E. Simms↳ A. Doucouré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaEverton

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots12

2.37Expected Goals (xG)1.27

8Corners2

8Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots12

7On Target3

3Off Target4

10Blocked5

16Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

542Total Passes246

455Accurate Passes165

84%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Premier League: Chelsea 2–2 Everton

Chelsea and Everton drew 2-2 in Premier League on March 18, 2023.

Goals: João Félix (52'), A. Doucouré (69'), K. Havertz (76' pen), E. Simms (89').

Chelsea controlled possession (69%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Chelsea 2–2 Everton