Chelsea 1–1 Everton: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Everton

M. Mount 70'

J. Branthwaite 74'

12/16/2021

Premier League · Round 17Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Chelsea50%

×Draw23%

Everton26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.23

Chelsea

1.79

Everton

1.23

Chelsea creates 46% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

1.88

creates per match

1.13

1.32

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Chelsea

1.88

Everton

1.13

allows per match

Chelsea

1.32

Everton

1.70

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.35scores less

Everton-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

74%

Chelsea or Everton

77%

Draw or Everton

50%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

28%

Everton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

53%

Chelsea 3+ goals

26%

Everton 1+ goals

71%

Everton 2+ goals

35%

Everton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

66%

Everton (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Everton away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.88 + Everton defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Everton attack 1.13 + Chelsea defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chelsea scores more

50%

level

23%

Everton scores more

26%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Pickford

Everton · G

9.0

Match Events

21'

45'

59'

62'

64'

65'

65'

R. Barkley← R. Loftus-Cheek

70'

J. Gbamin← André Gomes

70'

M. Mount↳ R. James

74'

J. Branthwaite↳ A. Gordon

77'

Lewis Dobbin

77'

Lewis DobbinPenalty cancelled

79'

T. Chalobah← Azpilicueta

90'

T. Onyango← A. Gordon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaEverton

Overview

80%Possession20%

23Total Shots5

7Corners1

11Fouls11

Shots

23Total Shots5

10On Target3

10Off Target1

3Blocked1

16Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

80%Possession20%

777Total Passes194

698Accurate Passes108

90%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

Premier League: Chelsea 1–1 Everton

Chelsea and Everton drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 16, 2021.

Goals: M. Mount (70'), J. Branthwaite (74').

Chelsea controlled possession (80%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Chelsea 1–1 Everton