Chelsea 4–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

Jorginho 82' (pen), 78' (pen)

K. Zouma 66'

B. Chilwell 50'

10/3/2020

Premier League · Round 4Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Chelsea45%

×Draw25%

Crystal Palace30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.23

Chelsea

1.56

Crystal Palace

1.23

Chelsea creates 27% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

1.86

creates per match

1.19

1.28

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Crystal Palace

1.19

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Crystal Palace

1.26

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.42scores less

Crystal Palace-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

70%

Chelsea or Crystal Palace

75%

Draw or Crystal Palace

55%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

23%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

79%

Chelsea 2+ goals

46%

Chelsea 3+ goals

21%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

71%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

35%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

60%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.56

Crystal Palace attack 1.19 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chelsea scores more

45%

level

25%

Crystal Palace scores more

30%

Chelsea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

B. Chilwell

Chelsea · D

8.9

Match Events

50'

B. Chilwell

64'

César Azpilicueta

66'

K. Zouma↳ B. Chilwell

67'

L. Milivojević← J. McCarthy

70'

N'Golo Kanté

72'

J. Riedewald← J. McArthur

77'

Tammy AbrahamGoal cancelled

78'

JorginhoPenalty

82'

JorginhoPenalty

83'

C. Pulisic← C. Hudson-Odoi

83'

M. Kovačić← N. Kanté

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaCrystal

Overview

70%Possession30%

17Total Shots4

8Corners5

17Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots4

6On Target0

6Off Target2

5Blocked2

12Inside Box2

5Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

707Total Passes280

636Accurate Passes208

90%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0