Chelsea 1–2 Brighton: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Brighton

C. Gallagher 13'

J. Enciso 69'

D. Welbeck 42'

4/15/2023

Premier League · Round 31Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Chelsea45%

×Draw23%

Brighton32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.44

Chelsea

1.75

Brighton

1.44

Chelsea creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.88

creates per match

1.55

1.32

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Chelsea

1.88

Brighton

1.55

allows per match

Chelsea

1.32

Brighton

1.63

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.35scores less

Brighton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

68%

Chelsea or Brighton

77%

Draw or Brighton

55%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

24%

Brighton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

52%

Chelsea 3+ goals

25%

Brighton 1+ goals

76%

Brighton 2+ goals

42%

Brighton 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

59%

Brighton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.88 + Brighton defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Brighton attack 1.55 + Chelsea defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chelsea scores more

45%

level

23%

Brighton scores more

32%

Chelsea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Kepa

Chelsea · G

8.0

Match Events

4'

Joël Veltman

13'

C. Gallagher↳ M. Mudryk

28'

J. Enciso← J. Veltman

39'

D. Welbeck← E. Ferguson

42'

D. Welbeck↳ P. Groß

45'

Conor Gallagher

51'

Trevoh Chalobah

56'

H. Ziyech← C. Pulišić

57'

João Félix← R. Sterling

57'

M. Kovačić← E. Fernández

57'

69'

74'

77'

87'

J. van Hecke← A. Webster

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaBrighton

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots26

0.54Expected Goals (xG)2.94

2Corners8

11Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots26

2On Target10

5Off Target10

1Blocked6

4Inside Box17

4Outside Box9

Passing

43%Possession57%

405Total Passes555

330Accurate Passes475

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

9Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Premier League: Chelsea 1–2 Brighton

Brighton beat Chelsea 2-1 in Premier League on April 15, 2023.

Goals: C. Gallagher (13'), D. Welbeck (42'), J. Enciso (69').

Brighton controlled possession (57%) and registered 26 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Brighton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Chelsea 1–2 Brighton