Chelsea 1–1 Brighton: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brighton

R. Lukaku 28'

D. Welbeck 90+1'

12/29/2021

Premier League · Round 20Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Chelsea45%

×Draw23%

Brighton32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.44

Chelsea

1.75

Brighton

1.44

Chelsea creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.88

creates per match

1.55

1.32

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Chelsea

1.88

Brighton

1.55

allows per match

Chelsea

1.32

Brighton

1.63

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.35scores less

Brighton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

68%

Chelsea or Brighton

77%

Draw or Brighton

55%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

24%

Brighton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

52%

Chelsea 3+ goals

25%

Brighton 1+ goals

76%

Brighton 2+ goals

42%

Brighton 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

59%

Brighton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.88 + Brighton defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Brighton attack 1.55 + Chelsea defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chelsea scores more

45%

level

23%

Brighton scores more

32%

Chelsea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Y. Bissouma

Brighton · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Marcos Alonso← R. James

28'

R. Lukaku↳ M. Mount

41'

Antonio Rüdiger

46'

T. Chalobah← A. Christensen

58'

Mateo Kovačić

64'

Callum Hudson-Odoi

66'

E. Mwepu← T. Lamptey

67'

N. Kanté← C. Hudson-Odoi

80'

D. Welbeck← A. Mac Allister

81'

Mason Mount

81'

Yves Bissouma

88'

S. Alzate← J. Moder

90+1'

D. Welbeck↳ Cucurella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaBrighton

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots18

10Corners8

14Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots18

5On Target6

3Off Target8

3Blocked4

9Inside Box10

2Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

430Total Passes473

343Accurate Passes379

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls7

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0