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Chelsea vs Brighton — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brighton
Brighton
R. Loftus-Cheek 63'
E. Hazard 60'
O. Giroud 38'
4/3/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Chelsea46%
×Draw23%
Brighton31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.77
Brighton
1.42

Chelsea creates 25% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 29 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.89
Brighton
1.58

allows per match

Chelsea
1.25
Brighton
1.66

finishing

Chelsea-0.45scores less
Brighton-0.37scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Brighton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
69%
Chelsea or Brighton
77%
Draw or Brighton
54%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
25%
Brighton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
83%
Chelsea 2+ goals
53%
Chelsea 3+ goals
26%
Brighton 1+ goals
76%
Brighton 2+ goals
41%
Brighton 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
60%
Brighton (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.25 · 39 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.89 + Brighton defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.77

Brighton attack 1.58 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chelsea scores more
46%
level
23%
Brighton scores more
31%

Chelsea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. HazardChelseaChelsea · F
9.4

Match Events

31'
A. Knockaert← S. March
38'
O. Giroud↳ C. Hudson-Odoi
60'
E. Hazard↳ R. Loftus-Cheek
63'
R. Loftus-Cheek↳ E. Hazard
70'
G. Murray← F. Andone
73'
D. Zappacosta← Azpilicueta
75'
Bernardo← A. Jahanbakhsh
82'
M. Kovačić← R. Loftus-Cheek
84'
Willian← E. Hazard

Possession

68%Chelsea

Shots

17Chelsea

Pass accuracy

53%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaBrighton
Overview
68%Possession32%
17Total Shots3
7Corners1
5Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots3
4On Target1
8Off Target2
5Blocked0
14Inside Box1
3Outside Box2
Passing
68%Possession32%
753Total Passes350
685Accurate Passes279
91%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
5Fouls9
0Offsides2

Premier League: Chelsea 3–0 Brighton

Chelsea beat Brighton 3-0 in Premier League on April 3, 2019.

Goals: O. Giroud (38'), E. Hazard (60'), R. Loftus-Cheek (63').

Chelsea controlled possession (68%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.