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Chełmianka Chełm vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
FT
0 – 2
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
10/16/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm51%
×Draw23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chełmianka Chełm
1.83
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.24

Chełmianka Chełm creates 48% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 70 away

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.77
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.18
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw
74%
Chełmianka Chełm or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
77%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
49%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
28%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
84%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
54%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
28%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
71%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
35%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
66%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more
51%
level
23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
26%

Chełmianka Chełm at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Chełmianka Chełm 0–2 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Chełmianka Chełm 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chełm.