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Chavdar Etropole vs Rilski Sportist — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
1 – 1
Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
5/18/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 32Stadion Chavdar (Etropole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Chavdar Etropole59%
×Draw22%
Rilski Sportist19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.91
Rilski Sportist
0.96

Chavdar Etropole creates 99% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 129 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Rilski Sportist
1.07

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Rilski Sportist
1.73

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Rilski Sportist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
81%
Chavdar Etropole or Rilski Sportist
78%
Draw or Rilski Sportist
41%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
35%
Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
85%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
57%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
30%
Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
62%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
25%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
76%
Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.91

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
59%
level
22%
Rilski Sportist scores more
19%

Chavdar Etropole at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Chavdar Etropole 1–1 Rilski Sportist

Chavdar Etropole and Rilski Sportist drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar (Etropole).