Chavdar Etropole 2–3 Oborishte: Result & Stats

Chavdar Etropole

FT

2 – 3

Oborishte

10/24/2018

Third League - Southwest · Round 12Stadion Chavdar (Etropole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Chavdar Etropole54%

×Draw23%

Oborishte23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chavdar EtropoleExpected goals in this matchOborishte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.11

Chavdar Etropole

1.82

Oborishte

1.11

Chavdar Etropole creates 64% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 132 away

2.08

creates per match

1.39

0.84

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole

2.08

Oborishte

1.39

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole

0.84

Oborishte

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Oborishte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Oborishte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw

77%

Chavdar Etropole or Oborishte

77%

Draw or Oborishte

46%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

30%

Oborishte wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

84%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

54%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

27%

Oborishte 1+ goals

67%

Oborishte 2+ goals

30%

Oborishte 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

70%

Oborishte (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Oborishte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Oborishte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.82

Oborishte attack 1.39 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more

54%

level

23%

Oborishte scores more

23%

Chavdar Etropole at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff