Chavdar Etropole 4–0 Botev Ihtiman: Result & Stats

Chavdar Etropole

FT

4 – 0

Botev Ihtiman

8/17/2019

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 3Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Chavdar Etropole60%

×Draw22%

Botev Ihtiman18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chavdar EtropoleExpected goals in this matchBotev Ihtiman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.91

Chavdar Etropole

1.88

Botev Ihtiman

0.91

Chavdar Etropole creates 107% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 132 away

2.08

creates per match

0.98

0.84

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole

2.08

Botev Ihtiman

0.98

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole

0.84

Botev Ihtiman

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Botev Ihtiman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw

82%

Chavdar Etropole or Botev Ihtiman

78%

Draw or Botev Ihtiman

40%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

35%

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

85%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

56%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

29%

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

60%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

23%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

77%

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more

60%

level

22%

Botev Ihtiman scores more

18%

Chavdar Etropole at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff