Chattanooga 6–2 Inter Miami II: Result & Stats

Chattanooga

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Inter Miami II

4/13/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 6Finley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chattanooga65%

×Draw19%

Inter Miami II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChattanoogaExpected goals in this matchInter Miami II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.00

Chattanooga

2.23

Inter Miami II

1.00

Chattanooga creates 123% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 50 away

1.73

creates per match

0.88

1.12

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Chattanooga

1.73

Inter Miami II

0.88

allows per match

Chattanooga

1.12

Inter Miami II

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chattanooga+0.00on par

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chattanooga ↓

Inter Miami II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chattanooga or draw

84%

Chattanooga or Inter Miami II

81%

Draw or Inter Miami II

35%

Winning margin

Chattanooga wins by 2+

42%

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Chattanooga 1+ goals

89%

Chattanooga 2+ goals

65%

Chattanooga 3+ goals

38%

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

63%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

26%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chattanooga (draw refunded)

80%

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chattanooga at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.72 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chattanooga attack 1.73 + Inter Miami II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.23

Inter Miami II attack 0.88 + Chattanooga defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chattanooga scores more

65%

level

19%

Inter Miami II scores more

16%

Chattanooga at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Chattanooga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff