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Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Central Valley Fuego — USL League One 2019

Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Central Valley Fuego
Central Valley Fuego
5/14/2022USL League OneUSL League One · Round 4CHI Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves49%
×Draw23%
Central Valley Fuego28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.79
Central Valley Fuego
1.30

Chattanooga Red Wolves creates 38% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 42 away

creates per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.64
Central Valley Fuego
1.38

allows per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.23
Central Valley Fuego
1.95

finishing

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par
Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chattanooga Red Wolves ↓

Central Valley Fuego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chattanooga Red Wolves or draw
72%
Chattanooga Red Wolves or Central Valley Fuego
77%
Draw or Central Valley Fuego
51%

Winning margin

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+
27%
Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals
83%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals
53%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals
26%
Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals
73%
Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals
37%
Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)
64%
Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chattanooga Red Wolves at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.64 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more
49%
level
23%
Central Valley Fuego scores more
28%

Chattanooga Red Wolves at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chattanooga Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Central Valley Fuego

Chattanooga Red Wolves and Central Valley Fuego drew 2-2 in USL League One on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at CHI Memorial Stadium in East Ridge, Tennessee.