Chateauroux 1–2 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Chateauroux

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Arles

K. Dupuis 84'

M. Dalé 90+3'

T. Ayasse 11'

4/13/2012

Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Chateauroux44%

×Draw28%

Arles28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.00

Chateauroux

1.33

Arles

1.00

Chateauroux creates 33% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 76 away

1.23

creates per match

0.78

1.22

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.23

Arles

0.78

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.22

Arles

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

72%

Chateauroux or Arles

72%

Draw or Arles

56%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

21%

Arles wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

74%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

38%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

15%

Arles 1+ goals

63%

Arles 2+ goals

26%

Arles 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

61%

Arles (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 161 matches

Arles away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.23 + Arles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arles attack 0.78 + Chateauroux defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chateauroux scores more

44%

level

28%

Arles scores more

28%

Chateauroux at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chateauroux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

T. Ayasse

63'

J. Lafourcade← J. Mandrichi

63'

M. Bourgeois← R. Fournier

71'

M. Courgnaud← T. Savagnier

80'

M. Dalé← M. Yattara

82'

K. Dupuis← Y. Hautcoeur

84'

K. Dupuis

90+3'

M. Dalé

Chateauroux

Arles

1

3

12

26

7

6

17

⚽

Ayasse

33

Abdelhami

29

Acapandié

19

▼

Yattara

25

▼

Savagnier

1

Fernandez

4

Sambou

13

▼

Fournier

6

Reynaud

3

Nando

8

▼

28

7

29

20

10

▼

Mandrichi

63'▲J. Lafourcade←▼J. Mandrichi

63'▲M. Bourgeois←▼R. Fournier

82'▲K. Dupuis←▼Y. Hautcoeur

Chateauroux substitutes

11Lafourcade22Bourgeois9Dupuis14Lacourt16Carradec

71'▲M. Courgnaud←▼T. Savagnier

80'▲M. Dalé←▼M. Yattara

Arles substitutes

24Courgnaud13Dalé5Soro11Roufosse30Yattara