Chasetown 3–2 Bootle: Result & Stats | League #54

Chasetown

FT

3 – 2

Bootle

10/21/2023

League #54 · Northern West - 11Trevor Brown Memorial Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chasetown74%

×Draw14%

Bootle12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChasetownExpected goals in this matchBootle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.17

Chasetown

3.04

Bootle

1.17

Chasetown creates 160% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

3.25

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Chasetown

3.25

Bootle

1.33

allows per match

Chasetown

1.00

Bootle

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chasetown+0.00on par

Bootle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chasetown ↓

Bootle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Chasetown or draw

88%

Chasetown or Bootle

86%

Draw or Bootle

26%

Winning margin

Chasetown wins by 2+

54%

Bootle wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Chasetown 1+ goals

95%

Chasetown 2+ goals

80%

Chasetown 3+ goals

57%

Bootle 1+ goals

69%

Bootle 2+ goals

33%

Bootle 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chasetown (draw refunded)

86%

Bootle (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chasetown at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Bootle away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chasetown attack 3.25 + Bootle defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.04

Bootle attack 1.33 + Chasetown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Chasetown scores more

74%

level

14%

Bootle scores more

12%

Chasetown at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Chasetown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff