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Charlton vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
J. Stockley 88'
A. Scully 76'
M. Whittaker 33'
4/2/2022League OneLeague One · Round 41The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Charlton43%
×Draw26%
Lincoln31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.44
Lincoln
1.19

Charlton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 156 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
69%
Charlton or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
57%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
21%
Lincoln wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
76%
Charlton 2+ goals
42%
Charlton 3+ goals
18%
Lincoln 1+ goals
70%
Lincoln 2+ goals
33%
Lincoln 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
58%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more
43%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
31%

Charlton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
C. McGrandlesLincolnLincoln · M
7.9

Match Events

25'
Alex Gilbey
33'
M. Whittaker
37'
Alex Gilbey
37'
Alex Gilbey
56'
Morgan Whittaker
57'
Lewis Fiorini
65'
J. Forster-Caskey← S. Fraser
70'
C. Maguire← L. Bridcutt
74'
J. Leko← A. Matthews
76'
A. Scully↳ J. Robson
82'
T. Hopper← A. Scully
86'
E. Lee← G. Dobson
86'
J. Marquis← L. Cullen
88'
J. Stockley↳ J. Forster-Caskey

Possession

53%Charlton

Shots

17Charlton

Pass accuracy

52%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonLincoln
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots10
9Corners4
12Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots10
3On Target4
8Off Target4
6Blocked2
15Inside Box4
2Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
430Total Passes404
359Accurate Passes315
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Charlton vs Lincoln

Lincoln beat Charlton 2-1 in League One on April 2, 2022.

Goals: M. Whittaker (33'), A. Scully (76'), J. Stockley (88').

Charlton controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Valley in London.