Charlton 3–2 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Bristol Rovers

C. Washington 84'

J. Forster-Caskey 42'

A. Shinnie 33'

E. Upson 32'

L. Leahy 18' (pen)

3/16/2021

League One · Round 18The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Charlton51%

×Draw25%

Bristol Rovers24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.04

Charlton

1.63

Bristol Rovers

1.04

Charlton creates 57% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 131 away

1.65

creates per match

0.95

1.13

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

76%

Charlton or Bristol Rovers

75%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

49%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

27%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

80%

Charlton 2+ goals

48%

Charlton 3+ goals

22%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

65%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

28%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

68%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Charlton scores more

51%

level

25%

Bristol Rovers scores more

24%

Charlton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

A. Shinnie

Charlton · M

8.3

Match Events

18'

L. LeahyPenalty

32'

E. Upson↳ S. Nicholson

33'

A. Shinnie

42'

J. Forster-Caskey

48'

Edward Upson

60'

D. Jaiyesimi← L. Millar

65'

C. Hargreaves← S. Nicholson

73'

Andrew Shinnie

74'

C. Aneke← J. Stockley

78'

Cameron Hargreaves

82'

M. Little← Z. Westbrooke

82'

84'

86'

90'

90+5'

D. Pratley← A. Shinnie

90+4'

J. van Stappershoef← E. Upson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonBristol

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots7

10Corners2

19Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target4

4Off Target3

7Blocked0

10Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

395Total Passes295

282Accurate Passes173

71%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides0