Charlotte 0–0 CF Montreal: Result & Stats

Charlotte

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CF Montreal

6/24/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 28Bank of America Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Charlotte45%

×Draw24%

CF Montreal31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharlotteExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.33

Charlotte

1.67

CF Montreal

1.33

Charlotte creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

1.57

creates per match

1.39

1.28

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Charlotte

1.57

CF Montreal

1.39

allows per match

Charlotte

1.28

CF Montreal

1.76

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Charlotte+0.08on par

CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte ↓

CF Montreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Charlotte or draw

69%

Charlotte or CF Montreal

76%

Draw or CF Montreal

55%

Winning margin

Charlotte wins by 2+

24%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Charlotte 1+ goals

81%

Charlotte 2+ goals

50%

Charlotte 3+ goals

23%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

74%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

38%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Charlotte (draw refunded)

60%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.28 · 17 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte attack 1.57 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Charlotte defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Charlotte scores more

45%

level

24%

CF Montreal scores more

31%

Charlotte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Charlotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff