Charlotte Independence 1–2 Northern Colorado

Charlotte Independence

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Northern Colorado

5/18/2022

USL League One · Round 4American Legion Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Charlotte Independence44%

×Draw25%

Northern Colorado31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charlotte IndependenceExpected goals in this matchNorthern Colorado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

Charlotte Independence

1.54

Northern Colorado

1.25

Charlotte Independence creates 23% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 43 away

1.92

creates per match

1.26

1.25

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Charlotte Independence

1.92

Northern Colorado

1.26

allows per match

Charlotte Independence

1.25

Northern Colorado

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlotte Independence+0.00on par

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence ↓

Northern Colorado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence or draw

69%

Charlotte Independence or Northern Colorado

75%

Draw or Northern Colorado

56%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence wins by 2+

22%

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 1+ goals

79%

Charlotte Independence 2+ goals

45%

Charlotte Independence 3+ goals

20%

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

71%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

36%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)

59%

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.25 · 64 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence attack 1.92 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.54

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Charlotte Independence scores more

44%

level

25%

Northern Colorado scores more

31%

Charlotte Independence at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff