Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Charlotte Independence 2 vs Tormenta II — USL League Two 2018

Charlotte Independence 2
Charlotte Independence 2
PST
23:00
Tormenta II
Tormenta II
5/20/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 7Manchester Meadows Park (Rock Hill, SC)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Charlotte Independence 234%
×Draw22%
Tormenta II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlotte Independence 2
1.67
Tormenta II
1.93

Tormenta II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 23 away

creates per match

Charlotte Independence 2
2.07
Tormenta II
2.13

allows per match

Charlotte Independence 2
1.73
Tormenta II
1.26

finishing

Charlotte Independence 2+0.00on par
Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence 2 ↓

Tormenta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence 2 or draw
56%
Charlotte Independence 2 or Tormenta II
78%
Draw or Tormenta II
66%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence 2 wins by 2+
17%
Tormenta II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 2 1+ goals
81%
Charlotte Independence 2 2+ goals
50%
Charlotte Independence 2 3+ goals
23%
Tormenta II 1+ goals
85%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
57%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence 2 (draw refunded)
43%
Tormenta II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence 2 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.73 · 41 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence 2 attack 2.07 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + Charlotte Independence 2 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Charlotte Independence 2 scores more
34%
level
22%
Tormenta II scores more
44%

Tormenta II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Charlotte Independence 2 host Tormenta II

May 20, 2020: Charlotte Independence 2 take on Tormenta II in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Charlotte Independence 2 host Tormenta II at Manchester Meadows Park (Rock Hill, SC).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.