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Charlotte Independence 2 vs Peachtree City — USL League Two 2018

Charlotte Independence 2
Charlotte Independence 2
PST
23:00
Peachtree City
Peachtree City
6/23/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 38Manchester Meadows Park (Rock Hill, SC)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Charlotte Independence 256%
×Draw21%
Peachtree City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlotte Independence 2
2.11
Peachtree City
1.31

Charlotte Independence 2 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 20 away

creates per match

Charlotte Independence 2
2.07
Peachtree City
0.90

allows per match

Charlotte Independence 2
1.73
Peachtree City
2.15

finishing

Charlotte Independence 2+0.00on par
Peachtree City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence 2 ↓

Peachtree City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence 2 or draw
77%
Charlotte Independence 2 or Peachtree City
79%
Draw or Peachtree City
44%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence 2 wins by 2+
33%
Peachtree City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 2 1+ goals
88%
Charlotte Independence 2 2+ goals
62%
Charlotte Independence 2 3+ goals
35%
Peachtree City 1+ goals
73%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
38%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence 2 (draw refunded)
70%
Peachtree City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence 2 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.73 · 41 matches

Peachtree City away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence 2 attack 2.07 + Peachtree City defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.11

Peachtree City attack 0.90 + Charlotte Independence 2 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Charlotte Independence 2 scores more
56%
level
21%
Peachtree City scores more
23%

Charlotte Independence 2 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Charlotte Independence 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Charlotte Independence 2 host Peachtree City

June 23, 2020: Charlotte Independence 2 take on Peachtree City in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Charlotte Independence 2 host Peachtree City at Manchester Meadows Park (Rock Hill, SC).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.