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Charlotte Independence 2 vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Charlotte Independence 2
Charlotte Independence 2
PST
23:00
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
5/23/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 10Manchester Meadows Park (Rock Hill, SC)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Charlotte Independence 248%
×Draw22%
Dalton Red Wolves30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlotte Independence 2
1.97
Dalton Red Wolves
1.51

Charlotte Independence 2 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 24 away

creates per match

Charlotte Independence 2
2.07
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

Charlotte Independence 2
1.73
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

Charlotte Independence 2+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence 2 ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence 2 or draw
70%
Charlotte Independence 2 or Dalton Red Wolves
78%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
52%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence 2 wins by 2+
27%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 2 1+ goals
86%
Charlotte Independence 2 2+ goals
58%
Charlotte Independence 2 3+ goals
31%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
78%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
44%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence 2 (draw refunded)
62%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence 2 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.73 · 41 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence 2 attack 2.07 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + Charlotte Independence 2 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Charlotte Independence 2 scores more
48%
level
22%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
30%

Charlotte Independence 2 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Charlotte Independence 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlotte Independence 2 vs Dalton Red Wolves — Match Preview

Charlotte Independence 2 face Dalton Red Wolves on May 23, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Charlotte Independence 2 host Dalton Red Wolves at Manchester Meadows Park (Rock Hill, SC).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.