Tondela 2–0 SC Braga: Result & Stats

Tondela

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SC Braga

Kaká 64'

Eli 41'

5/21/2017

Primeira Liga · Round 34Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Tondela30%

×Draw25%

SC Braga45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TondelaExpected goals in this matchSC Braga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.52

Tondela

1.20

SC Braga

1.52

SC Braga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

1.10

creates per match

1.50

1.54

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Tondela

1.10

SC Braga

1.50

allows per match

Tondela

1.54

SC Braga

1.30

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Tondela-0.43scores less

SC Braga+0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

SC Braga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tondela or draw

55%

Tondela or SC Braga

75%

Draw or SC Braga

70%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+

12%

SC Braga wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals

70%

Tondela 2+ goals

34%

Tondela 3+ goals

12%

SC Braga 1+ goals

78%

SC Braga 2+ goals

45%

SC Braga 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)

40%

SC Braga (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

SC Braga away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.10 + SC Braga defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

SC Braga attack 1.50 + Tondela defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tondela scores more

30%

level

25%

SC Braga scores more

45%

SC Braga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Kaká

Tondela · D

8.3

Match Events

6'

Pedro Nuno

34'

Matheus← Marafona

39'

Murilo← J. Murillo

41'

Eli↳ Miguel Cardoso

61'

Pedro Neto← Pedro Santos

64'

Kaká↳ Pedro Nuno

71'

Wagner← Pedro Nuno

73'

Rodrigo Pinho← Gamboa

81'

88'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TondelaSC

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots12

4Corners4

18Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots12

6On Target2

4Off Target6

3Blocked4

6Inside Box5

7Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

311Total Passes495

223Accurate Passes415

72%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls14

4Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Primeira Liga: Tondela 2–0 SC Braga

Tondela beat SC Braga 2-0 in Primeira Liga on May 21, 2017.

Goals: Eli (41'), Kaká (64').

SC Braga controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.

Tondela vs SC Braga — Primeira Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primeira Liga: Tondela 2–0 SC Braga