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Sporting CP vs Boavista — Primeira Liga 2026

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Boavista
Boavista
B. Dost 63', 48' (pen), 29'
A. Ruiz 20'
4/8/2017Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 28Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Sporting CP66%
×Draw20%
Boavista14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.08
Boavista
0.83

Sporting CP creates 151% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.40
Boavista
0.90

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.76
Boavista
1.75

finishing

Sporting CP+0.79scores more
Boavista+0.07on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Boavista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
86%
Sporting CP or Boavista
80%
Draw or Boavista
34%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
42%
Boavista wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
87%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
61%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
34%
Boavista 1+ goals
56%
Boavista 2+ goals
20%
Boavista 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
83%
Boavista (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.76 · 32 matches

Boavista away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.75 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.40 + Boavista defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.08

Boavista attack 0.90 + Sporting CP defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sporting CP scores more
66%
level
20%
Boavista scores more
14%

Sporting CP at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
B. DostSporting CPSporting CP · F
9.1

Match Events

16'
Edu Machado
20'
A. Ruiz↳ E. Schelotto
29'
B. Dost↳ Bruno César
48'
B. DostPenalty
52'
A. Schembri← Fábio Espinho
58'
Carraça← Anderson Carvalho
63'
Adrien Silva← B. Ruiz
63'
B. Dost↳ Bruno César
68'
Rochinha← A. Bukia
73'
Rochinha
76'
J. Campbell← Bruno César
76'
Chico Geraldes← Daniel Podence

Possession

62%Sporting

Shots

20Sporting

Pass accuracy

55%Sporting

Statistics

SportingBoavista
Overview
62%Possession38%
20Total Shots5
9Corners3
15Fouls17
Shots
20Total Shots5
10On Target1
7Off Target3
3Blocked1
14Inside Box3
6Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
476Total Passes286
392Accurate Passes195
82%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls17
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Sporting CP vs Boavista

Sporting CP beat Boavista 4-0 in Primeira Liga on April 8, 2017.

Goals: A. Ruiz (20'), B. Dost (29', 48' pen, 63').

Sporting CP controlled possession (62%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon.