AZ Alkmaar 2–2 Heerenveen: Result & Stats

AZ Alkmaar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Heerenveen

W. Weghorst 52' (pen)

M. Henriksen 33'

S. Schaars 82'

A. Zeneli 40'

8/7/2016

Eredivisie · Round 1AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

AZ Alkmaar55%

×Draw22%

Heerenveen22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ AlkmaarExpected goals in this matchHeerenveen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.13

AZ Alkmaar

1.91

Heerenveen

1.13

AZ Alkmaar creates 69% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.86

creates per match

1.16

1.09

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.86

Heerenveen

1.16

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.09

Heerenveen

1.96

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.41scores more

Heerenveen-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Heerenveen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw

78%

AZ Alkmaar or Heerenveen

78%

Draw or Heerenveen

45%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

32%

Heerenveen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

85%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

57%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

30%

Heerenveen 1+ goals

68%

Heerenveen 2+ goals

31%

Heerenveen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

71%

Heerenveen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.09 · 30 matches

Heerenveen away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.96 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.86 + Heerenveen defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Heerenveen attack 1.16 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more

55%

level

22%

Heerenveen scores more

22%

AZ Alkmaar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Haps

AZ Alkmaar · D

8.1

Match Events

20'

Lucas Bijker

33'

M. Henriksen↳ A. Jahanbakhsh

40'

A. Zeneli↳ L. Slagveer

43'

Stijn Wuytens

51'

Pelle van Amersfoort

52'

W. WeghorstPenalty

57'

64'

68'

71'

71'

76'

H. Veerman← R. Ghoochannejhad

79'

L. Garcia← D. dos Santos

81'

F. Friday← W. Weghorst

81'

82'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AZHeerenveen

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots9

4Corners4

18Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target4

7Off Target3

1Blocked2

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

323Total Passes357

226Accurate Passes258

70%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls20

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1

Match Recap: AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen

AZ Alkmaar and Heerenveen drew 2-2 in Eredivisie on August 7, 2016.

Goals: M. Henriksen (33'), A. Zeneli (40'), W. Weghorst (52' pen), S. Schaars (82').

Heerenveen controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.

AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen