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AC Horsens vs Esbjerg — Superliga 2026

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
K. Finnbogason 80'
10/1/2016SuperligaSuperliga · Round 12CASA Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

AC Horsens40%
×Draw26%
Esbjerg34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.41
Esbjerg
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 36 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.20
Esbjerg
0.86

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.72
Esbjerg
1.61

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

Esbjerg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
66%
AC Horsens or Esbjerg
74%
Draw or Esbjerg
60%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
19%
Esbjerg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
76%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
41%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
17%
Esbjerg 1+ goals
72%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
37%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
54%
Esbjerg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.72 · 65 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.20 + Esbjerg defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Esbjerg attack 0.86 + AC Horsens defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AC Horsens scores more
40%
level
26%
Esbjerg scores more
34%

AC Horsens at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AC Horsens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
J. Mehl← L. Kryger
71'
M. Hvilsom← B. McGrath
74'
K. Finnbogason← K. Aabech
80'
K. Finnbogason
84'
A. Mabil← B. Paulsen
87'
D. Henry← D. Tshiembe
90'
Andre Bjerregaard

Possession

42%AC

Shots

9AC

Statistics

ACEsbjerg
Overview
42%Possession58%
9Total Shots11
9Corners8
10Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots11
5On Target3
4Off Target8
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: AC Horsens vs Esbjerg

AC Horsens beat Esbjerg 1-0 in Superliga on October 1, 2016.

Goals: K. Finnbogason (80').

Esbjerg controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at CASA Arena Horsens in Horsens.