Sonderjyske 1–1 Hobro: Result & Stats | Superliga

Sonderjyske

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hobro

K. Luijckx 4'

P. Kirkevold 45'

10/29/2017

Superliga · Round 14Sydbank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sonderjyske45%

×Draw25%

Hobro30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonderjyskeExpected goals in this matchHobro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.22

Sonderjyske

1.54

Hobro

1.22

Sonderjyske creates 26% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 33 away

1.33

creates per match

1.03

1.41

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Sonderjyske

1.33

Hobro

1.03

allows per match

Sonderjyske

1.41

Hobro

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.00on par

Hobro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Hobro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw

70%

Sonderjyske or Hobro

75%

Draw or Hobro

55%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

22%

Hobro wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

79%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

45%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

20%

Hobro 1+ goals

70%

Hobro 2+ goals

34%

Hobro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

60%

Hobro (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 97 matches

Hobro away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.33 + Hobro defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hobro attack 1.03 + Sonderjyske defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sonderjyske scores more

45%

level

25%

Hobro scores more

30%

Sonderjyske at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sonderjyske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

K. Luijckx

45'

P. Kirkevold

55'

T. Kløve← Ramón

59'

S. Poulsen← N. Ritter

70'

71'

79'

80'

85'

85'

J. Simonsen← C. Olesen

85'

M. Pedersen← M. Mikkelsen

89'

Pal Alexander Kirkevold

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SonderjyskeHobro

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots5

6Corners3

18Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots5

3On Target2

5Off Target3

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1