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Odense vs FC Copenhagen — Superliga 2026

Odense
Odense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
A. Jacobsen 1'
10/15/2017SuperligaSuperliga · Round 12EWII Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Odense38%
×Draw24%
FC Copenhagen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odense
1.54
FC Copenhagen
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Odense
1.79
FC Copenhagen
1.73

allows per match

Odense
1.34
FC Copenhagen
1.28

finishing

Odense-0.16scores less
FC Copenhagen+0.51scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

FC Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Odense or draw
62%
Odense or FC Copenhagen
76%
Draw or FC Copenhagen
62%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+
18%
FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals
79%
Odense 2+ goals
45%
Odense 3+ goals
20%
FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
79%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
45%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)
50%
FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.34 · 16 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.28 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.79 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Copenhagen attack 1.73 + Odense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Odense scores more
38%
level
24%
FC Copenhagen scores more
38%

Odense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
A. Jacobsen
46'
P. Bengtsson← M. Lüftner
61'
Kenneth Emil Petersen
66'
C. Nielsen← R. Jönsson
70'
K. Kusk← R. Falk
70'
C. Holse← A. Pavlović
71'
J. Tverskov← J. Thomasen
83'
M. Welbeck← A. Jacobsen

Possession

48%Odense

Shots

6Odense

Statistics

OdenseFC
Overview
48%Possession52%
6Total Shots14
3Corners7
14Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots14
3On Target7
3Off Target7
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Odense vs FC Copenhagen

Odense beat FC Copenhagen 1-0 in Superliga on October 15, 2017.

Goals: A. Jacobsen (1').

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at EWII Park in Odense.