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Charlotte Eagles vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Charlotte Eagles
Charlotte Eagles
PST
23:00
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
6/29/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 44Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Charlotte Eagles48%
×Draw22%
Dalton Red Wolves31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlotte Eagles
1.98
Dalton Red Wolves
1.56

Charlotte Eagles creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 24 away

creates per match

Charlotte Eagles
2.09
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

Charlotte Eagles
1.83
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

Charlotte Eagles+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Eagles ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Charlotte Eagles or draw
69%
Charlotte Eagles or Dalton Red Wolves
78%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
52%

Winning margin

Charlotte Eagles wins by 2+
27%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Charlotte Eagles 1+ goals
86%
Charlotte Eagles 2+ goals
59%
Charlotte Eagles 3+ goals
31%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
79%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
46%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Eagles (draw refunded)
61%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Eagles at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.83 · 46 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Eagles attack 2.09 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + Charlotte Eagles defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Charlotte Eagles scores more
48%
level
22%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
31%

Charlotte Eagles at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Charlotte Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Charlotte Eagles host Dalton Red Wolves

June 29, 2020: Charlotte Eagles take on Dalton Red Wolves in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Charlotte Eagles host Dalton Red Wolves at Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.