Charleroi 1–0 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

Charleroi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Standard Liege

A. Bernier 44'

4/6/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 2Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 43+ matches

Charleroi48%

×Draw25%

Standard Liege27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharleroiExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.11

Charleroi

1.56

Standard Liege

1.11

Charleroi creates 41% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 43 away

1.51

creates per match

1.08

1.14

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Charleroi

1.51

Standard Liege

1.08

allows per match

Charleroi

1.14

Standard Liege

1.60

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Charleroi-0.21scores less

Standard Liege-0.01on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw

73%

Charleroi or Standard Liege

75%

Draw or Standard Liege

52%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+

24%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals

79%

Charleroi 2+ goals

46%

Charleroi 3+ goals

21%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

67%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

30%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)

64%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.51 + Standard Liege defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Standard Liege attack 1.08 + Charleroi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Charleroi scores more

48%

level

25%

Standard Liege scores more

27%

Charleroi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Heymans

Charleroi · M

7.9

Match Events

44'

A. Bernier↳ P. Guiagon

45'

B. Bolingoli← N. Ngoy

46'

I. Mbenza← P. Guiagon

52'

Ilay Camara

56'

S. Alexandropoulos← L. Kuavita

60'

Isaac Mbenza

74'

A. Zeqiri← A. Hountondji

74'

Y. Gboua← I. Camara

75'

M. Bulat← L. Amani

83'

Ž. Rogelj← A. Bernier

83'

G. Kyei← N. Štulić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharleroiStandard

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots8

1.18Expected Goals (xG)0.21

3Corners2

6Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target1

6Off Target3

3Blocked4

8Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

573Total Passes480

484Accurate Passes391

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.07Goals Prevented-0.07

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3