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Charleroi vs Seraing United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Charleroi
Charleroi
Preview
12:00
Seraing United
Seraing United
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
60%
Charleroi
model favours
60%20%20%

Charleroi score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Charleroi60%
×Draw20%
Seraing United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleroi
2.26
Seraing United
1.25

Charleroi creates 81% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Charleroi
2.25
Seraing United
0.87

allows per match

Charleroi
1.63
Seraing United
2.27

finishing

Charleroi+0.00on par
Seraing United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

Seraing United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw
80%
Charleroi or Seraing United
80%
Draw or Seraing United
40%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+
38%
Seraing United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals
89%
Charleroi 2+ goals
66%
Charleroi 3+ goals
39%
Seraing United 1+ goals
71%
Seraing United 2+ goals
36%
Seraing United 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)
75%
Seraing United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Seraing United away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 2.25 + Seraing United defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.26

Seraing United attack 0.87 + Charleroi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Charleroi scores more
60%
level
20%
Seraing United scores more
20%

Charleroi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 41% of Charleroi’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Charleroi
LDWDL
United
LLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Charleroi host Seraing United

July 25, 2026: Charleroi take on Seraing United in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.