Charleroi 0–1 KV Mechelen: Result & Stats

Charleroi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

KV Mechelen

B. Raman 1'

3/8/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 29Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Charleroi48%

×Draw24%

KV Mechelen28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharleroiExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.20

Charleroi

1.65

KV Mechelen

1.20

Charleroi creates 38% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

1.51

creates per match

1.26

1.14

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Charleroi

1.51

KV Mechelen

1.26

allows per match

Charleroi

1.14

KV Mechelen

1.78

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Charleroi-0.21scores less

KV Mechelen+0.08on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw

72%

Charleroi or KV Mechelen

76%

Draw or KV Mechelen

52%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+

25%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals

81%

Charleroi 2+ goals

49%

Charleroi 3+ goals

23%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

70%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

34%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)

63%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.51 + KV Mechelen defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

KV Mechelen attack 1.26 + Charleroi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Charleroi scores more

48%

level

24%

KV Mechelen scores more

28%

Charleroi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Touba

KV Mechelen · D

8.0

Match Events

1'

B. Raman↳ K. Mrabti

46'

A. Bernier← Ž. Rogelj

46'

L. Lauberbach← B. Raman

50'

Yassine Titraoui

53'

Lion Lauberbach

61'

V. Dragsnes← M. Nzita

67'

A. Flips← I. Mbenza

69'

S. Welsh← P. Pflücke

69'

B. Bafdili← N. Storm

78'

A. Stanić← Y. Titraoui

80'

M. Konaté← G. Hairemans

84'

Ortwin De Wolf

90+3'

A. Ouattara← K. Mrabti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharleroiKV

Overview

67%Possession33%

12Total Shots11

1.10Expected Goals (xG)1.20

6Corners3

7Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target6

8Off Target5

2Blocked0

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

67%Possession33%

568Total Passes300

483Accurate Passes205

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

0.55Goals Prevented0.55

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2