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Charleroi vs KV Mechelen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Charleroi
Charleroi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
12/27/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 20Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Charleroi49%
×Draw24%
KV Mechelen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleroi
1.71
KV Mechelen
1.20

Charleroi creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Charleroi
1.53
KV Mechelen
1.10

allows per match

Charleroi
1.29
KV Mechelen
1.88

finishing

Charleroi-0.15scores less
KV Mechelen+0.33scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw
73%
Charleroi or KV Mechelen
76%
Draw or KV Mechelen
51%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+
26%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals
82%
Charleroi 2+ goals
51%
Charleroi 3+ goals
24%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
70%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
34%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)
65%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.53 + KV Mechelen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

KV Mechelen attack 1.10 + Charleroi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Charleroi scores more
49%
level
24%
KV Mechelen scores more
27%

Charleroi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

Charleroi beat KV Mechelen 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Charleroi.